Work Plan for the Research Study

PHASE ONE: ECONOMIC PROBLEMS & TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGES

Phase One is comprised of Tasks 1 & 2:

Task 1: Initial Meeting and Administration

The project will commence with a meeting of the selected consultant team, representatives of MaineDOT, the Steering Committee and Management Committees, and the Study Management Consultant. The statement of study issues and opportunities and the Scope of Work for this study will be agreed and finalized.

During this initial meeting the work plan, schedule, and data collection process will be discussed. Data sources will be identified by Management Committee members. Private and public sector stakeholders will be recommended for subsequent interviewing. It is also expected that the consultant team will take over responsibility for maintaining and updating the project web site, and that process will also be clarified at that time.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 1 outcomes on initial meeting outcomes and modifications (if any) to the scope of work .

Task 2. Documentation of Needs and Opportunities

The consultant team will assemble data to document and validate the severity of the economic development and transportation concerns and the extent of opportunities that were agreed to in Task 1. The product will be a database of current conditions, past trends, and future forecasts. These data will be used for the screening of different optional strategic directions in Task 3 and as a basis for the predictive analysis in Task 4. Of particular importance will be documentation of regional economic development concerns. The needs identified by stakeholders span the following categories:

Task 2-A: Economic Base. Historically, Atlantic Canada and the northerly regions of the Northeastern US have lagged behind more centrally-located regions with respect to growth of new industries and jobs. Although the more urbanized parts of the study area and those with good north-south access links are growing, more rural areas with poor transportation links have generally continued to decline. For decades, the region has been losing jobs in traditional resource-based industries, such as agriculture, fishing, lumber, and paper industries. There is a need to better understand the factors contributing to the region’s economic condition.

In connection with Task 2, the consultant will assemble multi-state and multi-province data on the study area’s economic base and conduct an analysis that profiles the region’s economy and documents the relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of competitive factors. Particular attention must be paid to the region’s traditional natural resource industries and to tourism, transportation, and energy-related sectors. New growth industries will be identified and their transportation needs will be evaluated.

Economic conditions in the study area will be evaluated relative to the rest of the Northeast and to other competing regions in North America and elsewhere as appropriate. This information will be used to identify the extent to which the region is -- or is not -- failing to get its “fair share” of new jobs and businesses. The factors that hinder economic development in the region will be identified. The consultant will evaluate opportunities for and constraints to economic growth. These will be used to assess how transportation improvements can support retention and expansion of existing industries and help to attract more businesses and investment into the region.

The multi-state and multi-province economic data assembled under Task 2 will be used for the subsequent development and screening of strategic options under Tasks 3 and 4. These data shall be provided in a format that the MaineDOT and members of the Steering Committee, Management Committee, and others can update to subsequently monitor economic conditions in the region.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 2A findings on the region’s economic base.

Task 2B: Existing Transportation Market Analysis. Preliminary stakeholder interviews revealed that several transportation user groups feel that the existing transportation network does not provide adequate access to markets and other destinations. Businesses purport that insufficient customer and supplier access inhibits their competitive market positions. The consultant will identify the various market and travel segments served by the transportation system, and evaluate how well each is served by the existing transportation network.

Travel pattern data will be collected and analyzed to profile and characterize the nature of demand for east-west origin-destination corridors. Travel along north-south routes as connections for broader east-west movements will be evaluated. Travel patterns will be analyzed by market segment (e.g., tourists, business travelers, commercial vehicles, colleges and universities, major businesses, key economic sectors.). Some preliminary information has been compiled but it is anticipated that a survey of major industries and shippers in the region will be necessary to more systematically collect information on major east-west and north-south trade routes and connections, truck movements, the types of commodities carried, and industries affected. Travel pattern data will be needed for the subsequent analyses during Tasks 3 and 4.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 2B findings on transportation access conditions.

Task 2C: Regional Cost-Competitiveness. The study area has a high quality, well-educated labor pool. But its high cost structure impedes its ability to attract and retain businesses. Transportation costs are a big contributor to the region’s high cost structure. Data will be assembled on the nature, importance, and impact of transportation costs on the region’s competitiveness for new jobs, businesses, and residents. Comparisons with other regions should be drawn. The cost-competitiveness analysis will also examine the extent to which congestion in the New Jersey to Connecticut region affects the cost of freight access for Northern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 2C findings on cost-competitiveness.

Task 2D: Trade Opportunities. In addition to existing transportation markets, there may be latent demand for travel and trade between the Upper Great Lakes Region, the Northeastern United States, the Eastern Canadian Provinces, and locations throughout the world. The consultants will assemble a data base on applicable international trade flows by truck, rail, air, and by sea. A profile of trade into, out of, around, and through the region should be developed with information as available on origin, destination, value, and intermodal connections. Tourism, information technology, and education will be included in the scope of regional import and export activity. The potential of transportation improvements to facilitate access to national and international markets will be evaluated. Consultants will look for opportunities that may include:

Increasing international trade flows by opening up a new east-west trade route, linking the Atlantic Canada and Maine ports to the Northern Midwest and Ontario with a multi-modal transportation solution.

· Alleviating mounting traffic pressure on north-south trade corridors
· Promoting international tourism.
· Increasing trade between the Northeastern States and the neighboring provinces.

The consultant will assemble a data base and establish a framework for analysis of trade opportunities in the US and Canada. These data should cover current and prospective future international trade and tourism in the region. They should show how effectively the region competes with other areas of the United States for international trade in goods, services, and tourists.

The study will identify opportunities and constraints regarding future development of international trade in the region, including regulatory trade barriers. The international trade data base will be used for the subsequent analyses under Tasks 3 and 4, and should be provided in a format that MaineDOT and members of the Steering Committee, Management Committee and others can update to subsequently monitor international trade indicators.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 2D findings on trade opportunities.

Task 2E: Modal Issues. The consultant will examine the extent to which different modes of transportation are applicable in addressing the needs and opportunities identified in Tasks 2B, 2C, and 2D. Analysis of the following modes will be conducted:

· Highways. There are six north-south interstate highways in the region, but on the US side of the border, there is no east-west interstate above I-90. The Trans- Canada Highway generally serves destinations north of the border providing indirect east-west access through Canada as it loops far to the north around Maine. Limited information exists regarding baseline travel conditions on major road segments in the region. During this task, the consultant will gather and update basic information regarding existing conditions on the region’s main east-west roads. Data collection will focus on relevant east-west routes and connections with north-south routes.

· Rail. State and local economic development agencies throughout the study area have been involved in efforts to retain and to revive underutilized rail lines. These efforts are intended to reduce freight costs and to supplement the lack of four-lane highway access through the region. Information will be collected on rail lines and their potential to support existing businesses, reduce transportation costs, facilitate east-west access, and to reduce traffic on surface roads.

· Air. With the relatively recent advent of discount airlines (e.g., Jet Blue, West Jet) in the region, the cost of air travel is decreasing. But the cost of air travel and the lack of direct flights within much of the study area are still considered to be a competitive disadvantage. Some areas are completely underserved by airports, while in other places; three competing airports might exist within the same 100 mile catchment area. Data will be gathered on the availability and cost of air service in the region. Analysis will be conducted of travel patterns and routes. Gaps in service and demand for more direct connections must be identified and addressed. Comments – As certain types of freight are, or can be, moved by air, air freight service should be considered. An assessment of ground access should also be considered as ground access may be an inhibiting factor to air service.

· Water. The region’s inland and sea ports and waterways are underused. The consultant will consider the potential for resolving road access problems by making better use of sea ports and inland waterways. Data will be gathered to allow for assessment of the potential for the development of inland distribution of cargos from ports by short sea shipping, making better use of the region’s sea and inland ports.

· Intermodal Links. Data will be collected on the existence and efficiency of intermodal facilities in the region. Specifics should be assembled regarding:

· the demand for intermodal connections
· the adequacy of the supply of existing facilities for efficient intermodal connections
· the potential to resolve east-west road access problems by removing traffic from surface roads with better intermodal links to rail, air, and water transport.

· Efficient Border Crossings. The cumbersome nature of border processing in the wake of 9/11 has created costly inefficiencies in trade between Canada and the US. This is contributing to the high costs of living and to the cost of doing business in the study area. Baseline data will be gathered for all major border crossing points regarding traffic flows, wait times, and the cost of delays. Potential for improvements of the Amtrak passenger rail border crossing on the line between Burlington and Montreal should be subject to particular scrutiny.

Deliverable: (1) Memo summarizing Task 2E findings on cross-modal issues.

Task 2F. Interim Report. Upon completion of Subtasks 2A-E, the Consultant Team will prepare an Interim Report and Presentation to the Steering Committee summarizing the findings of Phase One. The report and presentation will focus on explaining and assessing the case for addressing transportation and economic development needs, and include recommendations for Phase Two. The Interim report will also include the Task 2A-E memos as Appendices.

Deliverables: (1) Interim Report, (2) Steering Committee Presentation.

At the end of Phase 1, there will be a process of review and discussion with the Steering Committee. Work on Phase 2 will not commence until acceptance of Phase 1 Work Based on the findings of Phase One, the scope for Phase Two may also be refined by mutual agreement between MaineDOT and the Technical Consultant Team. .

PHASE TWO: TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS

Phase Two is comprised of Tasks 3 through 8:

Task 3. Strategic Directions

Task 3A: Integrating Transportation and the Economy. The consultant will use information gathered under Task 2 to analyze the relationship between the region’s economic performance and its transportation connections. In quantitative or qualitative terms, data will be used to establish the connection between economic performance and transportation infrastructure. The consultant may use models of transportation, economic growth, and international trade as appropriate to identify sensitivity of regional economies to changes in transportation conditions. This will provide a basis for developing more detailed and realistic directions for strategies in subtask 3B. Consultants will provide details on how they would approach this task.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 3A findings on economic sensitivity to transportation conditions.

Task 3B. Identification of Alternative Strategic Directions. The overarching goal of the study is to identify opportunities to support economic growth of the region. This may include delineation and development of a new international trade corridor. It could involve coordinating a number of smaller scale improvement projects and connections among states and provinces into a seamless corridor designed to link the study area, both internally and to new external markets.

A number of optional strategic directions for achieving better access to east-west markets will be identified as part of this task. The objective will be to establish the feasibility of a new multi-modal east-west Trade Corridor with seamless intermodal and international connections.

The team will develop and evaluate different strategic directions for achieving economic development goals by resolving transportation problems. Attention will be focused on east-west access. The full range of transportation modes will be evaluated including air, road, rail and shipping by sea and on inland waterways. Strategic directions can consist of “bundles” of improvements like:

- Expansion and/or enhancement of the highway network
- Expansion and/or enhancement of the rail system
- Expansion and/or enhancement of intermodal facilities.
- Deployment of state-of-the-art technology to resolve congestion problems at borders and other choke points
- Standardization of freight regulations
- Promotion of underused inland waterway and Atlantic ports
- Reduction of costs of passenger and air freight service in the region
- Improvement of intra-regional connections
- Trans-shipping and small-scale, short-sea distribution of LNG and other products
- Exploration of opportunities for the growing Canadian energy sector to fuel economic growth in the region.
- Promotion of tourism throughout the region

Screening criteria for a “fatal flaws” analysis of strategic directions for access improvements must be developed. Solutions that do not address the needs of the region for better east-west access promoting international commerce will be eliminated. Likewise, those with adverse environmental consequences, those that would be cost-prohibitive, and those that will not create jobs can be screened out early in the process. “No build” and transportation management alternatives will be defined here and used later in Task 4 as the baseline for measuring impacts of potential strategic directions for transportation improvements.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing the findings of Task 3B on options for strategic directions.

Task 4. Predictive Analysis: Forecasting Economic and Transportation Impacts

In this task, the consultant team will apply economic and transportation forecasting tools to assess the impacts of the potential strategic directions for linking markets that were proposed under Task 3.

Task 4A: Economic Development Analysis. It is likely that the transportation improvements that will emanate from this study will be implemented because of their potential for promoting economic development. The project is about providing access to markets, not about abating traffic congestion. Improvements will be justified by their positive impacts in creating new jobs by promoting intra- and inter-regional and international trade and by increasing the region’s competitiveness for new jobs and residents, rather than on the grounds of traffic demand. Thus, the economic development analysis is viewed as the most critical piece of this study. The selection panel will look for leadership by economic development professionals to guide this task.

Estimates of the regional economic impacts of each of the optional strategic directions will be developed. These forecasts will be made for major business sectors in the region, as well as for types of industries that the region is trying to attract. The forecasts should be for 20 years (2005 - 2025). An assessment of the future of the regional economy with and without transportation improvements will be included. The base case (or no-build) scenario will address the potential for further decline of the regional economy in the absence of improvements to the transportation system.

Impacts of different strategic directions on facilitating international commerce by improving east-west connections through the study area will be evaluated. Measures of economic growth should be presented in terms easily understood by the public and should include such indicators as business costs savings, investment, new jobs created, existing jobs retained, wages, increased business output, and other economic contributions.

It is anticipated that the consultant will make use of economic tools to assess the impacts of possible strategic directions on the region’s economic growth. Changes in economic competitiveness and international trade should be forecast. These same models and tools should be used to conduct sensitivity analysis, to determine how economic growth impacts may differ depending on other factors. These include factors over which the region has some control (e.g., economic development programs or transportation investments) as well as factors beyond regional control (e.g., foreign exchange rates). Data and tools developed here will be made available to the client state and provincial partners for future use and updating.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 4A findings on economic impact results.

Task 4B: Transportation Analysis. Coverage of the study region by existing transportation network models is uneven. Some data are available on border crossings and international traffic. The consultant will need to develop a coherent framework to analyze the multi-modal traffic impacts of potential east-west transportation solutions. While it is understood that this could be a major modeling effort (and information from the transportation analysis is needed for the economic evaluation) the consultant hould not devote a large portion of the project budget to traffic model development. Lower cost, creative solutions for east-west corridor traffic forecasting on the major corridors in the region are encouraged.

The consultant will need to identify east-west travel demand levels and supply deficiencies under different strategic options and regional growth scenarios. Since traffic choke points in the region are limited to highly localized sites, it is anticipated that few transportation investments will be justified based solely on traditional volume/capacity relationships. However, the consultant will need to identify specific locations where:

· safety is an issue
· border crossings are inefficient
· intermodal connections are needed
· traffic delays impede access and add to the region’s high cost structure.

The consultant will need to forecast impacts of major alternatives on future vehicle-miles of travel (VMT), vehicle-hours of travel (VHT), operating costs, and safety impacts. Data on each of the user groups identified during the course of the market analysis conducted under Task 2 must be analyzed separately. The extent to which alternative improvements will benefit each group shall be forecasted and documented. Issues related to the reliability of the alternatives shall be identified. All forecasts shall be done for a twenty year period (2005 – 2025).

The economic and transportation analyses shall be used to develop detailed screening criteria to further refine and shorten the list of viable transportation improvement alternatives. Screening criteria may include -- but should not be limited to -- such factors as economic growth measures, transportation efficiency measures, and order-of-magnitude cost measures. The criteria shall be used to prepare a shorter list of optional strategic directions for transportation investments. It is anticipated that the short list will identify specific corridors and generalized locations for improvement.

Considering the ambitious scope of the project, improvements will need to be phased over a number of years. Therefore, strategic directions for short, intermediate, and long term implementation of improvements projects should identified.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 4B findings on transportation impact results..

Task 5. Preliminary Benefit/Cost Assessment

The consultant team will conduct a preliminary benefit/cost assessment of optional strategic directions for transportation investments. The analysis will be informed by data collected during Tasks 2 and 4 (Baseline and Predictive Analyses). Preliminary cost estimates will be needed to develop rough estimates of the magnitude of capital, operating, and maintenance costs for each alternative.

Net Benefit and Benefit/Cost estimates shall be calculated for each alternative, based on traditional measures of transportation system efficiency, adjusted to include economic development and community benefits. Sensitivity analysis using alternative regional growth scenarios shall be conducted. Cost effectiveness ratios that include easily-comprehended measures like the cost-per-job created and the cost-per-dollar of income generated shall be developed. Options for improvements that would produce few jobs and those that have prohibitive costs will be screened out at this point.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 5 findings on preliminary benefit/cost outcomes.

Task 6. Project Financing

The consultant shall identify a range of options for alternative funding packages sharing project financing among the states and provinces within the study area. The full range of alternative sources of financing, including possible federal, national, state, and provincial funds as well as private sector sources must be considered. Potential financing strategies, including creative financing arrangements, shall be identified. Realistic phasing for financing projects should be projected. Alternatives will be further reduced and refined based on the likelihood of financing them.

Deliverable: Memo summarizing Task 6 findings on alternative project financing packages.

Task 7: Draft and Final Report

The consultant will prepare a draft final report . This document will be developed in consultation with the project’s Study Management Consultant, as cited on p. 3 of this document. Upon completion of the draft report, consultants will present their findings to a meeting of Management Committee. MaineDOT will assemble comments from the Management and Steering Committees, and present them to the study team to guide revision to the report. The final report will then be produced and submitted (along with electronic files).

Deliverables: Draft and Final Reports

Follow-On Phases of Work. After successful completion of the Phase Two Final Report, MaineDOT may decide to proceed with an additional phase of work to develop an Action Plan and supporting materials for follow-up to the report recommendations. This additional work, if it occurs, will be a separate contract not within the scope of this current RFP.

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